Oil Markets in 2008

Paul Horsnell, Barclays Capital

Provides a detailed overview of oil markets in 2008, considering drivers to demand, growth and price. Annual changes to the forward curve of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) show both the rate at which oil prices have risen since 2004 and the movement in the back end of the curve (dollars per barrel). The choices made by OPEC are shown, in terms of their average output over time and this is considered against projected demand growth in 2008, estimates of supply growth from non-OPEC countries, and supply decreases (e.g. UK, Norway, Mexico). The oil market balances between OPEC and non-OPEC, in terms of supply and demand, are set for 2006 to 2008. A breakdown of the incremental oil supplies is given (OPEC, non-OPEC, Canadian Tar Sands, Coal to liquids and biofuels) contrasting US Department for Energy and Barclays Capital projections to 2030.