Mr Robert Sansom, Imperial College
The demand for heat will have a fundamental influence on all the associated assets required from supply to delivery through to end-user consumption. Thus it is important to understand heat demand and how it might change in the future as it will have a direct impact on the economics of low carbon heating systems. Heat demand forecasts are frequently presented in annualised format and although this is helpful for macro economic analysis, without further refinement it is not possible to determine the assets required to meet short term variations in heat demand. For example, electrification of heat will have a direct impact on peak electricity and the capacity requirements of the assets to meet this demand.
To address this, a model was constructed which uses actual metered space and water heat demand data collected from residential properties. These are then converted to an annual half hourly national heat and electricity demand profile based on annual heat demand scenarios as well as assumptions for heat electrification and the efficiency of electrical heating systems. Space heating is very weather sensitive and the impact on peak demand is examined using Mild, Normal and Cold temperature scenarios.
The analysis presented in the paper use the DECC 2050 Pathways with the focus on national peak heat and electricity demand projections and how these are affected by the temperature scenarios. The scope for heat storage system and demand side participation to reduce peak demand is explored.
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