Transport 2050: the potential role of hydrogen

Professor Paul Ekins, UCL

Bearing in mind that transport is part of the wider energy system, scenarios and models to 2050 can help examine a range of potential developments, which all have implications for the future energy system, including the role of: hybrids; electric vehicles; energy storage; fuel cells; biofuels; infrastructure requirements; and transport behaviours. UK MARKEL runs have considered carbon targets and scenarios, carbon emissions, and sectoral analysis (carbon, demand, transport, fuel, biofuels), suggesting that fuels and technologies are very sensitive to a range of assumptions (carbon, technology costs, discount rates and timescale). Consideration of the role for accelerated technology development (ATD) of hydrogen and fuel cells, suggests a need for more public policy attention, taking account of factors such as which technologies to support and to what extent, the need to consider infrastructure requirements and the impact of behaviour and patterns of mobility. Preliminary results suggest that: transport technology choices are sensitive to assumed patterns of demand and that changes in the transport sector have significant impacts on the overall energy system; there are trade-offs between biofuels and biomass with CCS; more hydrogen production (greater electricity demand and/or more CCS infrastructure); and greater reliance on bio-fuel imports.